• Dylan Fadden

Super Bowl LIV

Well we made it, it's finally Super Bowl weekend. As I'm sitting here writing this I can't help but to reminisce on everything that this NFL season was. For me, it meant watching the Bears get my hopes up nearly every weekend, losing in the fantasy football championship game by three points, and losing a numerous amounts of bets. To many others, it was probably filled with joy and happiness of watching your team make the playoffs or even winning a fantasy football championship or winning a numerous amounts of bets. No matter which side you fall on, I think we can all agree that each NFL season never fails to be unique and unpredictable. Who could've predicted that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens would have the season that they had. Who could've predicted that the 49ers would be in the Super Bowl. Who could've predicted that Ryan Tannehill would resurrect his career and lead the Titans to not one but two playoff wins. Who could've predicted that KIRK COUSINS would lead his Vikings into the Superdome and knock the Saints out of the playoffs.

Sunday February 2nd:

49ers vs Chiefs 5:30 PM

Miami, FL


I don't think there's any better way to say it than how my friend/roommate Lennox said it. As we are sitting in the Sportsbook at the local casino he turns to me and says "This is so exciting, a Super Bowl with two teams that you have no idea what's going to happen makes it that much more interesting". And he's exactly right. To think you know what is going to happen in this Super Bowl is almost just ignorant. Sure, you can want something to happen or you can have a prediction but to be so sure of it, well for lack of better terms is just wrong. Theres so many factors that go into the Super Bowl and with this one especially, there's so many players that have never played in the Super Bowl before. I cannot wait to see what happens on Sunday.

Chiefs:

Record: 12-4

Division: AFC West Winner

PPG: 28.2

PPG Allowed: 19.2

Record against the spread: 12-5-1

Keys to the Game:

  • Get Mahomes in rhythm EARLY. The main reason why the Chiefs may not win this game will be because Mahomes will not be able to get going early and have consecutive 3 and outs (Or short drives).

  • They need to successfully hit on big plays while at the same time managing the clock. What I mean by this is they will have to successfully waste a sufficient amount of time while also hitting on their big plays at the right time. They cannot allow the 49ers to dictate the clock.

  • Defensively they are going to have to stop the run at all costs and contain Derrick Henry. They were able to do a good job with Derrick Henry but this is also a very different running style. The 49ers backs are much quicker and elusive than Henry, but still the point remains the same. They must force Garoppolo to try and beat them through the air.


Player Prop:

  • Mahomes Super Bowl MVP +120 (if the chiefs win there's a 95% chance he will be the MVP)

  • Mahomes O 2.5 TDs -115

I know this looks lame, but none of the other lines had good enough odds worth taking. I wanted to take Kelce anytime scorer but I assumed it would be near even odds or plus but nope, its -140. I still think its likely to happen but I don't think it's worth the odds they are giving. Of course the next best bet for scoring a TD is Tyreek Hill but his was even higher at -150. So, I would say the safest and most consistent part of this team is Mahomes and to just stick with him.


49ers:


Record: 13-3

Division: NFC West Winner

PPG: 29.9

PPG Allowed: 19.4

Record against the spread: 10-6-1

Keys to the Game:

  • GET TO MAHOMES. Defensive line is the strongest part of this defense but still this is worth saying. Mahomes has only been sacked 17 times in 14 games, getting Mahomes out of his comfort zone should be priority number one for this 49ers defense.

  • ESTABLISH THE RUN. Again this is something the 49ers do VERY well. Their entire offense is predicated off of getting the run going. Only positives happen when they get the run going. This allows them to manage the clock, along with opening the field on play action throws for Jimmy G. Play action might be the most important part of getting the run going for this team, Garoppolo has been an absolute stud throwing the ball on play action plays. Im afraid if the Chiefs do manage to get the 49ers out of rhythm Garoppolo won't be able to hang with Mahomes in a shootout not.

  • This is one that has to be said whenever playing the Chiefs, GET OFF THE FIELD ON 3RD DOWNS. Even if you get the Chiefs into a 3rd and long situation it doesn't matter. With Mahomes and the speed they have it seems like they are always capable of getting the first down no matter the down and distance. If you want to stop the Chiefs you need to get them off the field whenever you have the chance, so even if they are 3rd and 17 LOCK UP. To win this game they will have to keep the Chiefs to a low conversion percentage on 3rd down.


Player Prop:

  • Emmanuel Sanders Over 45.5 receiving yards -115

After a lot of consideration over this line Lennox and Connor have successfully convinced me to change this from Deebo to Emmanuel Sanders. In my eyes Deebo is the better playmaker but if this game turns into a higher scoring game I can't imagine a scenario in which they don't get Emmanuel Sanders the ball, or at least over 45 yards.

  • Tevin Coleman scores TD -120

Yeah yeah yeah, I know Mostert went crazy last game but don't let that fool you. Tevin Coleman is still the best RB in this offense, if the 49ers find themselves near the goal line you can bet your ass Coleman will be getting the ball.

Gambling Picks


The Lines:

  • Chiefs -1.5/49ers +1.5

  • Chiefs ML -125/49ers ML +105

  • Over/Under 54.5

  • Chiefs team Over/Under 27.5

  • 49ers team Over/Under 26.5

Picks:

  • Chiefs ML -125

  • Over 54.5 -110

Summary


During the Super Bowl I will be riding with the Chiefs heavily. I parlayed the Chiefs ML with the over in the game at 52.5, and then in a separate bet I took Mahomes to win the Super Bowl MVP. I know what some of you are thinking, "You're just a Mahomes hype beast" while that is partially true, there are so many other reasons why I want/think the Chiefs will win. First of all, I would love to see Andy Reid finally win a ring, he's been such dominant coach in this league for the past 20 years I think it's about time he gets it done. Aside from the stellar offensive play, the defense has been playing incredibly well as of lately. While they have given up a decent amount of points, they have been able to limit teams in what they do best, stopping both Watson from making any crazy plays to get them back in the game and Derrick Henry and holding him to under 100 yards. This team right now seems so motivated to win and playing the best football they've played all season. And of course Mahomes, he has the chance to become one of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. I think he starts his GOAT legacy with this game tomorrow. He appears up for the challenge and I think he will shine bright on the biggest stage. Chiefs by a million.

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